UFC Fight Night Odds Preview: Underdogs are the Picks of the Litter
The Best Dariush vs Tsarukyan Picks are on the Dogs
UFC Austin is About To Get Wild With Upsets
Unlike UFC pay-per-view events that tend to be a chalk bettors’ delight, the Fight Night cards tend to be favorable for underdog bettors. Take this UFC Fight Night in Austin, for example. At least half of the 13 bouts here could lead to an upset. That includes most of the fights on the main card, including the main event with the Dariush vs Tsarukyan Pick.
UFC Fight Night
Fight: Dariush vs Tsaruykan
Day/Time:
Location: Moody Center, Austin, TX
Stream: ESPN, ESPN+
Oddsmakers are Overlooking Dariush
But at +225, it’s implied that he’s got less than a 31% chance of beating UFC event appearance, he lost to Mateus Gamrot. Dariush slapped Gamrot silly and won as a +225 underdog.
The perennial contender is 5-1 as an underdog in the UFC and is capable wherever the fight goes. His weakness is his durability, as he’s been knocked out in four of his five losses in the promotion. But Tsarukyan is not a knockout artist despite three TKOs in the UFC. While he should be favored, the line is too wide, and Dariush could score another big upset.
Main Card Fights Should Lean Toward Underdogs
The rest of the UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs Tsarukyan Pick should all be on the dogs. Given their betting lines, most of them have a 50% or better at winning. Bobby Green (+175) is fresh off a main event upset in his last fight. He’s 6-8 as an underdog and is better-rounded than Jalin Turner (-215), who also has a hard time cutting weight.
Deiveson Figueiredo (+110) could also stick it to Rob Font (-140) in his bantamweight debut. The former flyweight champion benefits from not having to cut weight. His power and endurance should be better, especially against Font, who has shown to have a frail chin.
Speaking of switching weight classes, Sean Brady (-120), who just got outstruck and TKO’d by a wrestler. Those betting on UFC fights moved Gastelum’s line to -110 for a reason.
Our last two underdogs are not the best but should have better odds of winning than their long lines imply. Punahele Soriano (-310), respectively.
Guida is still going strong as a 41-year-old. He’s still got the cardio to outwork Silva, who has no notable wins and has been KO’d in three of his last four fights. Stoltzfus, on the other hand, is 1-4 in the UFC. But Soriano is just 3-3 with a one-round gas tank. If he can survive the first round, he may edge the favorite.
Mommy Mayhem: Can Tate Bounce Back?
In the featured bout on the prelims is another former champion: Miesha Tate. She’s lost two straight since she returned to the UFC from a five-year retirement. But now she’s against Julia Avila (-150), who is coming from a 2.5-year layoff partly due to childbirth. And the last time Tate won, she beat a fellow mom.
Maybe it’s a coincidence. But the odds should not be so bad on Tate (+120) to prevail as an underdog UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs Tsaruykan pick.
For Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
