NHL In-Season Report: Winning Teams That Lose Money
The goal is to give bettors a gameplan, but Moneyline wagers are difficult.
This is the kind of stuff we love to write about because it hits the reset button for bettors, as well as being an eye-opener because the popular NHL can be a brutal task.
Good Teams That Must Be Avoided
At this time of year, most look at the Toronto Maple Leafs, who are 10-7 on the season, but -0.46 units loss based on a $100 bet.
This is new territory for Toronto, who produced an overall profit for the last three seasons during the regular season. Still, when you factor in their lack of postseason success, the Leafs are -16.36 units since 2018, despite a record (246-179 .579) that suggest that bettors should have found more success. As you would expect, their problem is when they are favored, with 21.98 units lost in that span but a sparkling 211-145 record (.593).
Team number two this season is the 9-8 New Jersey. Against that duo, Pittsburgh has lost 18 of 21 games (-16.37 units).
The worst winning team to have your money on is the Detroit, they’ll replace Carolina at the top of the list. Let’s continue our NHL moneyline odds by looking at the numbers rather than individual teams.
Numbers To Avoid
Betting is more than looking at NHL scores from the night before or past performances. Let’s dive into the numbers and show you what numbers have been the best to wager on this season and if this season’s trends hold up historically. To bet on decent teams but still get numbers that are bankroll-friendly, you need to find favorites who are in the -120 to -145 range.
This season, teams in that parameter are 57-30 (.655), good for 13.64 units of profit. This has been a good strategy over the last four seasons, producing 38.16 units of profit behind a record of 636-447 (.587). To make those numbers stronger, bet those teams when they’re on the road where 31.08 units of the 38.16 units have been made, but with a sparkling win percentage of .603.
Which numbers should we avoid? It’s an interesting fine line between success and failure. In 2023, teams favored between -115 and a +110 dog are just 9-23 (-13.99 units). This angle has been a solid go-against spot since 2017. In that time, bettors would have lost 66.60 units while compiling a 165-228 record. If you want to get nuts, since 2005, betting teams with this filter are 4215-4426 (-316.93 units).
However, don’t think you can blindly bet the other way using (-120 to +105). That thinking will have cost you 220.85 units. Welcome to the world of moneyline betting. One last NHL moneyline angle before we go.
Bad Teams That Produce A Profit
The Vancouver Canucks in profit with 5.08 units won. However, the public still has not warmed up to the Ducks, with 15 of the Ducks’ 18 games had the betting public on the other side, and the three times bettors were on Anaheim, they lost two of those games.
The NHL picks and parlays this season.
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