Offense? What Offense? Low-Scoring Iowa Keeps Defying the Odds

Looking to maintain their pursuit of a spot in the Big Ten Championship game, the Illinois.

Iowa, 16th in the latest college football game in Week 12.

Can the Hawkeyes take care of business at home? Read on as we break down the odds and give our Illinois vs Iowa CFB prediction.

Illinois vs Iowa Betting Trends

The Illinois Fighting Illini are just 2-8 against the spread. Their 20% cover rate is tied with Mississippi State for second lowest in FBS. The total has gone Over in four of Illinois’ last six games. Meanwhile, the Iowa Hawkeyes are 5-4-1 ATS. The total has gone Under in the Hawkeyes’ last five games and eight of 10 overall. That’s important to when assessing our Illinois vs Iowa CFB prediction.

Setting a Low Bar

How low can they go? When it comes to Iowa, anything’s possible.

The total for last Saturday’s matchup with Michigan State (26-16).

Despite their woefully inefficient offense, the Hawkeyes still have plenty to accomplish. Sitting atop the Big Ten West at 8-2 (5-2 conference), the Hawkeyes control their path to the Big Ten Championship game. If they win out, they’ll play either college football championship in some sportsbooks.

The Hawkeyes, winners of two straight and five of their last six, continue to ride their defense. On that side of the ball, they rank third in FBS in scoring (12.3 PPG allowed) and eighth overall. They’ve held three of their last four opponents to under 10 points. Outside of Penn State, which smacked them 31-0, nobody’s scored more than 16.

Projected for 7.5 wins, the Hawkeyes have already sured expectations. At the very least, they’re headed to a bowl for the third straight season under Kirk Ferentz. Each time they’ve won at least eight games.

Unfortunately, their offense continues to hold them back. The Hawkeyes rank dead last nationally (130th), averaging just 243 yards per game. Within the Big Ten, only Michigan State has scored fewer points. Keep that in mind when analyzing our Illinois vs Iowa CFB prediction.

Turning Back to Altmyer

Quarterback Indiana. A 4.5-point favorite, Illinois needed to overcome a 15-point deficit in the first half to get back to .500.

Paddock, who also led the Fighting Illini from behind the previous week versus Minnesota, will now return to the bench. Altmyer, a transfer from Ole Miss, has 1,883 ing yards with 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in his first season with the Fighting Illini. While turnovers have been an issue, Altmyer has just three interceptions over his last six games.

At 5-5 (3-4), the Fighting Illini are seeking their first three-game winning streak since they won six in a row last season. While they need to win out to sur expectations (projected 6.5 wins), the Fighting Illini are just one win from bowl eligibility. Notably, Illinois hasn’t been to back-to-back bowls since 2010-11 under Ron Zook. Because they’re still technically alive in the Big Ten West, Illinois is a +25000 longshot to win the conference per NCAAF odds.

On the heels of their highest output of the season, the Fighting Illini are averaging 23.8 points.

Handicapping the Game

Rather than stick with the hot hand in Paddock, Illinois head coach Bret Bielema is choosing to turn back to his Week 1 starter. It’s a curious move, as Altmyer hasn’t shown much upside despite being the supposed quarterback of the future for Illinois. But this way, Bielema has a veteran insurance policy in Paddock if things go awry offensively.

Whatever the case, Illinois is in a tough spot on the road. Iowa’s 5-1 at Kinnick Stadium, with its only loss coming Oct. 21 to Minnesota. If you’re skeptical of Iowa’s ability to cover by more than a field goal — for what it’s worth, the Hawkeyes are 5-4-1 ATS — consider betting the Under. The total (30.5) doesn’t seem like much, and it isn’t, but Iowa hasn’t shown an ability to score with any consistency. Ferentz’s team is always finding itself in rock fights. This week might not be any different.

For Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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