CFB Week 13: College Football Upsets and Underdogs
Favorites were 53-13 straight up last week, but we see three live dogs that we’re on right now.
To give you an idea of how difficult it is to find these plus-money winners every week, Favorites in 2023 are now 501-173 (.743) 2023, but dispute that win percentage if you’d bet every favorite, you would still be swimming in the red with 21.56 units loss. That’s better than the 117.44 units that it would have cost your bankroll if you just bet dogs, but it’s clear that finding a live dog takes work and knowledge of what numbers have produced the most outright winners.
To date, underdogs that are getting 3.5 points exactly are 19-16 straight-up, good for a profit of 11.47 units. We can expand that to teams getting +3 to +4 (+8.21 units), but it’s a nose dive into the red with any further line expansion. So, let’s get into our College Football upsets and underdogs and see if we can find some winners for the season’s final week.
Upset Special #1:
Michigan opened -5 but was bet down to their current number of -3.5, with 66% of the money taking the field goal and the hook.
Buckeye bettors may be getting the OSU at their peak after the Buckeyes scored over 37 points the last two weeks while allowing just three points in each. Historical college football stats show it was just the fifth time in school history that Ohio State won back-to-back games by at least 34 points while holding their opponents to three points or less. We’re getting the Buckeyes at +150 on the moneyline, so let’s grab that to start our card.
Upset #2:
Purdue opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but the public has jumped on that, forcing the books to move this up to -4 with a total of 53. The money wagered is about 50/50, but the ticket count is 66/34 in favor of Purdue. When you have two 3-8 teams, we are not sure. No matter who wins, it’s really an upset, but if Indiana wins, it would end a streak of dominance by Purdue after winning four of the last five games.
Neither team is going to challenge for the top of the Big 10 Indiana can contain a Purdue running game that averages 168 yards a game (54th in the nation), the Hoosiers will win this game outright. Take Indiana +155. Here’s our final college football upset and underdog of the week.
Upset #3:
This number has been one of the more interesting Miami opened at -7. We were more than happy to grab Ball State and the touchdown, but that was when things started to unravel. The public thought the same with 74% of the money on the Cardinals.
Now we’re looking at +4 with Ball State and +175 on the moneyline. If there ever was a revenge spot this is it after the Redhawks prevented the Cardinals from playing in a bowl game in 2022 after handing them a one-point loss to end the season. Don’t count on that happening again, although it will be close. Take Ball State +175. That does it for our college football upsets and underdogs, we wish you nothing but the best with your wagers this weekend.
For Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
