The UConn Huskies Are Expected To Be Favorites In Finals If They Move On
Check Out Our 2024 Mens NCAAB Projected Lines For Each Possible Game
By Saturday night, we’ll have the NCAA Tournament narrowed down to just two teams.
There are only four outcomes that we can have.
With Purdue playing NC State and UConn playing Alabama, the four possibilities for the NCAA Tournament include these matchups bulleted below.
- UConn vs Purdue
- UConn vs NC State
- Purdue vs Alabama
- Alabama vs NC State
The most likely scenario is UConn against Purdue. After all, the UConn Huskies are 11.5-point favorites against Alabama, while Purdue is a 9.5-point favorite against NC State in the Final Four matchups.
But we’ve seen plenty of upsets in the NCAA Tournament. The North Carolina State Wolfpack haven’t lost since the ACC Tournament began in mid-March. Meanwhile, Alabama’s defense has clicked after struggling throughout most of the year.
In reality, as long as you make the NCAA Tournament, anything is possible if your team gets hot. We’ve seen that between NC State and Alabama this year. We even saw a Final Four of San Diego State last year.
Anything is possible.
That said, our mission is to determine the projected odds for each potential matchup for Monday’s National Championship Game. Check out our 2024 Mens NCAAB projected lines for each potential championship matchup below.
NCAAB National Championship
Day/Time:
Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Projected Opening Line: Spread: UConn -5.5 (-115), Purdue +5.5 (-105), O/U 148.5
Many casual sports bettors might think UConn deserves to be a heavier favorite. But while UConn is the best team in the nation, according to KenPom, Purdue is third in the nation.
There’s not much of a drop-off, so our 2024 Mens NCAAB projected lines are pretty tight for this game.
The UConn Huskies have the longest active winning streak and the best offense in the nation. UConn ranks No. 1 in offensive efficiency and fourth in defensive efficiency. The Huskies have shot 35.8% from downtown and 59.1% from inside the arc. They’ve also held teams to 43% from inside the arc and just 30.9% from three. UConn won’t earn many turnovers, but they do everything else super well.
However, the Boilermakers are second in the nation in offensive efficiency and still in the top 20 in defensive efficiency. They have shot 40.6% from downtown and earned 38% of offensive rebounds, along with a very high foul shot rate.
Purdue has also shot 53.7% from inside the arc and will not turn the ball over against UConn. There aren’t many teams that can out-rebound UConn. Purdue is one of them. This is the matchup most people want to see. Check back for the college basketball odds once the Final Four concludes.
Projected Opening Line: Spread: UConn -15.5, O/U 142.5
If North Carolina State stuns Purdue and has to face UConn, they’ll likely be about a 15.5-point underdog at the opening. The Huskies, again, are one of the best teams in the nation.
The NC State Wolfpack aren’t one of the best.
While the Wolfpack are red-hot, this team was just 17-13 by the end of the regular season. They’ve got four graduate players in the starting five, which is one of the reasons for their late success. But ultimately, the Wolfpack have only shot 34.7% from deep and 50.4% from inside the arc.
They’ve also just escaped many games in the NCAA Tournament, thanks to poor shooting from other teams. The Huskies can beat you without making shots from long-range. Other teams can’t.
Projected Opening Line: Spread: Purdue -5.5, O/U 170.5
The only chance Purdue has of being a favorite in the NCAA Tournament Championship is by beating NC State and playing Alabama. If this scenario happens, our NCAAB predictions believe Purdue would be a 5.5-point favorite, with a total of 170.5.
Alabama has the No. 3 offense in the nation, behind UConn and Purdue. However, the defense ranks 105th in efficiency, per KenPom. The defense has improved during the NCAA Tournament, but it’s hard to imagine Alabama’s defense can get by UConn and Purdue with low turnovers, poor defensive rebounding, and many fouls.
Purdue would end up at the foul line at a very high rate against Alabama Crimson Tide, which would likely help the Boilermakers win this game.
Projected Opening Line: Spread: Alabama -4.5, O/U 165.5
This would be the chaos game. Most people are hoping for a UConn-Purdue final. That would add a matchup between two No. 1 seeds.
But if we were to get an Alabama-NC State final, Alabama would likely be a 4.5-point favorite.
This game would also have the highest projected total, with the thought that Alabama would absolutely dominate NC State on the offensive end. As we said earlier, NC State won many games thanks to poor shooting from other teams. Alabama has been one of the most consistent shooting teams in the nation, specifically in the NCAA Tournament.
When the NCAA Championship lines come out, feel free to compare these 2024 Mens NCAAB projected lines with the opening lines that come out for this game on Saturday. In the NCAA Tournament, you can also bet on NCAAB prop bets. There will be a huge selection of bets that you can make for the big game!
For NCAAB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
