Liberty vs Dream Betting Preview: Atlanta Challenges Super Team

Dream Without Starting PG Aari McDonald (torn labrum)

June 8, 2023 315 3 minutes readNBA Picks & Parlays

The Atlanta Dream came up short in its first crack against one of the WNBA’s “Super Teams” last week, falling 92-87 to the Las Vegas Aces. On Friday (7:30 p.m. ET), it’ll take on another as the New York Liberty pay a visit.

New York is a 7.5-point favorite and -315 to win outright, with Atlanta priced at +260. Oddsmakers have pegged the projected total at 163.5. What are the Dream’s chances of pulling off an upset? We break down the matchup in our Liberty vs Dream betting preview.

Liberty a Big Deal in Big Apple

Outside of defending WNBA champion Las Vegas, nobody generated more buzz in the offseason than New York. The Liberty revamped their roster, bringing aboard Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Courtney Vandersloot to form a WNBA “Super Team.” Between them, the trio’s ed for 12 All-Star appearances and two MVPs.

The g of Stewart, in particular, represented a seismic shift in the WNBA. The 28-year-old forward may be the sport’s most transformative player. Stewart’s won — and won big — at practically every level. At UConn, she delivered on a promise to capture four consecutive NCAA titles. Stewart also owns two Olympic gold medals (2016 Rio de Janeiro, 2020 Tokyo) and a pair of WNBA championships (2018, 2020) with the Seattle Storm. On both occasions, she was named Finals MVP.

In adding Stewart, New York solidified itself as the biggest threat to Las Vegas. The Liberty, one of the WNBA’s original franchises, is a +160 pick to win its first championship this season, behind only Las Vegas (-105). And at the moment, nobody else is really in serious consideration. For context: Washington currently owns the third-best odds at +1500.

New York is off to a 4-2 start while allowing the second-fewest points on average (76.3). Wednesday’s game against Minnesota on the WNBA schedule was postponed due to air quality issues impacting the New York area following the Canadian wildfires. Because of that, the Liberty will have had four days off before playing Atlanta.

Stewart is currently second in the WNBA in scoring, averaging 23.7 points. She’s also second in steals (2.2), third in rebounds (10.5) and fifth in both blocks (1.7) and minutes played (23.7). Meanwhile, the 34-year-old Vandersloot leads the league in assists (8.8), which she’s done six other times in her career. Both players figure prominently in our Liberty vs Dream betting preview.

Atlanta Trying to Stay Afloat

At 2-3, Atlanta currently holds the eighth and final playoff spot in the WNBA standings. To stay there, if not improve, the Dream will need to navigate through a significant portion of the 40-game season without guard Aari McDonald. The 2021 first-round draft pick out of Arizona is expected to miss up to a month as she recovers from a torn labrum.

The 5-foot-6 McDonald suffered the injury in Friday’s loss to Las Vegas. She had started each of Atlanta’s first five games and was averaging 6.0 points and a team-high 3.8 assists. Haley Jones, the No. 6 pick in April’s draft, is expected to replace her in the lineup.

Jones has been active off the bench, averaging 3.8 points over 11.6 minutes per game. She already has the fifth-best assist-to-turnover ratio (1.7) on the team, showcasing the strong ball-handling skills that made her a coveted prospect out of Stanford.

Reigning Rookie of the Year Rhyne Howard and Cheyenne Parker are tied for the team lead in scoring at 17.2 points per game, while Allisha Gray is close behind them at 16.8. Atlanta is the league’s third-highest scoring team (83.6), but it also ranks middle of the pack defensively (81.8 PPG allowed). That’s something the Liberty surely will look to exploit.

Handicapping The Game

Now is a bad time for Atlanta to lose its starting point guard. New York is tenacious defensively, and without McDonald, the Dream will likely have a hard time breaking them down along the perimeter. Howard is beginning to build on last year’s success, emerging into a foundational piece in Atlanta. But the disparity in talent between these teams is still stark, especially when you consider everything that Stewart brings to the floor. It’s why she was a +250 favorite, along with Aces forward A’ja Wilson, to win another MVP.

With Vandersloot and Sabrina Ionescu in the backcourt, the Liberty don’t make many mistakes. They do force a lot, though. On that front, the Dream could find themselves in a lot of trouble. It’s why New York looks like a comfortable favorite, even on the road, in our Liberty vs Dream betting preview.

For WNBA odds, betting news, analysis and more, visit pointspreads.com

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June 8, 2023

315 3 minutes read