Red Sox Look to Make Statement Against Dodgers

Trends Show Value On Over, Red Sox vs Dodgers MLB Preview

July 19, 2024 128 4 minutes readMLB Picks & Parlays

The Los Angeles Dodgers return from the All-Star break Friday to open a three-game series against the Boston Red Sox at home. Gavin Stone will oppose fellow right-hander Nick Pivetta in the opener (10:10 p.m. ET).

Los Angeles is -1.5 (+150) on the run line and -142 on the moneyline for the opener, with Boston +1.5 (-180) and +120. The projected total is 8.5, with a slight edge to the Over at -115 odds.

The Dodgers are also -195 favorites to win the series, compared to +170 for the Red Sox.

What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down both teams and assess the odds in our Red Sox vs Dodgers MLB preview. For added excitement, MLB betting fans go hand-in-hand with BetMGM bonuses.

Day/Time: Friday, July 19, 10:10 pm ET
Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
Streaming: MLB

Red Sox vs Dodgers Betting Trends

The Boston Red Sox are 44-51 against the run line, equaling a cover rate of only 46.3%. Only three clubs have covered less often: White Sox (44.9%), Marlins (43.8%), Mariners (42.9%). As for the Over/Under, Boston is 44-44-7.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, meanwhile, are 47-50 against the run line and 49-47-1 against the Over/Under.

That’s important to when analyzing the odds in our Red Sox vs Dodgers MLB preview.

Red Sox Trending Up

The Red Sox are 10-3 since June 30 and entered the All-Star break in sole possession of the third and final wild card spot in the American League (53-42). They also now trail the Orioles by only 4.5 games in the AL East, with the Yankees sandwiched between them.

As such, Boston’s odds of making the playoffs have improved to +100. Not bad for a club that was projected to win only 77.5 games.

The Red Sox went 5-1 against the Marlins and Yankees on their final road trip before the break and are 29-17 away from Fenway Park, including 26-20 against the run line. They haven’t lost back-to-back road games since June 7-8 against the White Sox.

Boston is also +1700 to win the AL and has seen its World Series 2024 odds climb to +3500. In that sense, it’s still a longshot, but things are looking up after a so-so start. The Red Sox spent most of April and May hovering around .500, never falling more than two games under.

Head of the Class

The Dodgers sputtered into the All-Star break, losing five of their last six to fall to 56-41. Despite that, they still hold a 7.0-game lead over the Diamondbacks and Padres atop the National League West and remain World Series favorites at +330. Philadelphia, which owns baseball’s best record at 62-34, is the only other club with 5/1 odds or better.

Even without Mookie Betts, the Dodgers’ lineup has been expectedly potent thanks to mashers like designated hitter Shohei Ohtani and first baseman Freddie Freeman. Ohtani is second behind Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge in both homers (29) and OPS (1.036), putting him on track to win his third MVP award, including first in the NL. His odds have shifted to -290 to -380 over the last week, with Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper a distant second (+410).

The Dodgers, third in the majors in homers (129) and runs scored (479), have gone Over the total at a rate of 51%. They are 27-19-1 against the Over/Under at home, outperforming their road mark of 22-28.

Betts, who is hitting .304 with an .892 OPS, has been out since June 16 after fracturing his left hand. Though initial reports estimated the eight-time All-Star would miss six to eight weeks, he has resumed baseball activities and could return sooner than expected.

Series Probables

Game 1

Friday, 10:10 p.m. ET

Nick Pivetta vs Gavin Stone

Pivetta, coming off back-to-back 10-strikeout outings against Miami and Oakland, is 4-6 with a 4.18 ERA. He’s allowed only four runs in 13.2 innings this month following a 5.13 ERA in June.

MLB prop bets project Pivetta for 6.5 strikeouts, with the Over at +150 and Under at -200.

He opposes Stone, who is 9-3 with a 3.26 ERA. He has given up eight runs over 7.2 innings this month after tossing his first-career shutout on June 26 against the White Sox.

Game 2

Saturday, 7:15 p.m. ET

Bryan Bello vs Justin Wrobleski

Bello has won his first three starts this month despite a 4.42 ERA, improving his record to 10-5. He is one of 10 pitchers with double-digit victories.

Wrobleski, meanwhile, will be making his third Major League start. The 24-year-old southpaw, the Dodgers’ No. 14 prospect per MLB Pipeline, has allowed eight runs (four home runs) over his first 10 innings.

Keep that in mind when assessing the odds in our Red Sox vs Dodgers MLB preview.

Game 3

Sunday, 7 p.m. ET

Kutter Crawford vs James Paxton

Crawford has been on a roll, going 3-0 with a 0.45 ERA (one run allowed in 20 innings) in July. The 28-year-old right-hander ranks top 15 in both ERA (3.04) and WHIP (1.04).

The Dodgers counter with Paxton, who is 7-2 with a 4.38 ERA. He has held opposing left-handers to just one extra-base hit and a .547 OPS in 52 at-bats this season.

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