Padres vs Nationals Best Bets: Teams Battling For Wild Card Berths

Nats Move to Within Four Games in Wild Card Race

July 23, 2024 168 3 minutes readMLB Picks & Parlays

The San Diego Padres (52-50) visit the Washington Nationals (47-53) for a three-game series beginning Tuesday. The Padres have won two straight to move into a wild card spot. Washington has won three straight to move within four MLB games of a wild card spot.

The Padres are going to start Randy Vasquez in the opener. The Nationals are expected to call-up DJ Herz from Rochester to make the start.

The Padres vs Nationals best bets show Washington is -120 over the Padres regardless of their starting pitcher.
The total is 9.5.

San Diego is No. 2 in team batting with a .260 average and No. 12 in home runs. The Padres are scoring 4.5 runs per game, which is slightly more than the league average of 4.4 runs. With their hitting stats, San Diego should be scoring a little more.

The pitching has been just a shade below average, with San Diego ranking No. 18 in team ERA. The bullpen is No. 22 in team ERA and have converted 25 saves in 39 opportunities.

The pitching staff is pretty average all the way around and one reason why the MLB playoff odds have the Padres +120 to make it. You can lay -150 San Diego misses the playoffs.

Washington’s team batting average of .240 isn’t going to impress many people. The Nationals are second-worst in MLB when it comes to home runs. Washington does steal a lot of bases and is third in MLB with 135, but have also been caught stealing a league-high 48 times. The Nationals are averaging 4.2 runs per game.

The Nationals are just below average when it comes to pitching. Washington is No. 19 in team ERA and the bullpen is No. 17 in bullpen ERA. The Nationals have converted 29 of 43 save attempts.

Game 1

Day/Time: Tuesday, 6:45 p.m. ET
Location: Nationals Park in Washington D.C.

Tuesday’s Game

Vasquez has been penciled in as the Padres starter. He’s 2-5 with a 4.57 ERA on the MLB season. The Padres are 5-8 when Vasquez starts and 2-4 when he starts on the road. San Diego is 8-5 in totals in those games.

Washington is 3-4 when Herz starts and dropped his last three starts before he was sent back to the minors. He was either very good or pretty bad when he started. He is 1-3 with a 5.17 ERA, but has 41 strikeouts in 31 innings.

With the Nationals not naming a starting pitcher, Washington is favored more due to Vasquez struggling at times than it is anything its pitchers have done. The Padres vs Nationals best bets believe the number is high, but the over 9.5 makes the most sense in this one.

Wednesday’s Game

Matt Waldron is expected to start for San Diego against Mitchell Parker. Waldron is 5-9 with a 3.59 ERA and has pitched better than his record. The Padres are 7-13 when Waldron starts, but are scoring just 3.2 runs per game. San Diego is 6-2 with Waldron on the mound when they score four or more runs.

Parker is 5-5 on the year with a 3.90 ERA. The Nationals are 9-8 with Parker on the mound. Washington has allowed at least five runs in Parker’s last three starts but have won two of them.

The Padres vs Nationals best bets show San Diego isn’t the best MLB team against left-handed starters. The Padres are 15-17 and score 3.1 runs per game. As a result, San Diego is 13-19 in totals when facing a left-handed pitcher. There is some rationale for taking the under in this game.

Thursday’s Game

Dylan Cease will get the start for the Padres and will face off with Patrick Corbin. It’s been a rough go so far this season for Corbin, who is 2-9 with a 5.35 ERA. Washington is just 6-14 when he starts and the MLB betting lines show the Nats have been an underdog every game he’s started.

Cease has pitched well enough for San Diego and is 9-8 with a 3.76 ERA. The Padres are 12-9 when he starts and 7-4 when he starts on the road. The MLB baseball scores show the Padres allow 3.8 runs per game when Cease is the starting pitcher in a road game.

The trends point to San Diego a little bit and you have to figure San Diego will be in the favorite’s role here. Corbin is a better pitcher than he’s shown so far, but isn’t having any luck. The Padres get the nod in the series finale.

For Point Spreads Sports Magazine.