Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers Series Preview and Odds

Brewers Look To Pad Division Lead

July 26, 2024 143 4 minutes readMLB Picks & Parlays

The total is 7.5 runs

The Milwaukee Brewers have been comfortably in control of the National League Central for much of the division and currently hold a six-game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals.

Milwaukee has won four of five since the All-Star break and will look to stay hot as they host the lowly Miami Marlins, who are coming off an impressive series win over the Baltimore Orioles but are in the midst of a major sell-off before the trade deadline.

If you’re making Marlins vs Brewers series picks, Milwaukee is a big -230 moneyline and -110 runline favorite in Friday’s opener. The total is 7.5 runs.

Milwaukee took two of three from the Chicago Cubs this week, holding the Cubs to a total of five runs. It wasn’t all great for the Brewers, though, as star outfielder Christian Yelich landed on the injured list with a re-occurrence of a back injury he has fought for years.

He was having a great offensive year and losing him is a major blow for a Milwaukee team that has been surprisingly productive from a run-scoring perspective.

Yelich might miss the rest of the season in a huge hit to the Brewers’ MLB playoff projections.

The Marlins’ season has been lost for awhile and it appears as if Miami will continue to trade away pieces without any chance of a playoff appearance.

Starting pitching injuries and offensive under-performance have sank, pun intended, the Marlins as they are mired in the NL East cellar. They did show some life against Baltimore but are essentially playing out the string.

📊Records: Marlins (37-66)/Diamondbacks (59-43)
⏰Day/Time: Friday, July 26th, 8:10 PM ET
📍Location: American Family Field; Milwaukee, Wisconsin
📺Streaming: MLB.TV

Yelich Injury Really Hurts

An important thing to consider when thinking about Marlins vs Brewers series picks is just how important Yelich is for this Milwaukee MLB team.

He was the Brewers’ only regular position player with an OPS over .900 and just one of four with an OPS+ over 100.

They have still managed to be a top-ten offensive team — sixth in average, second in on-base percentage, eighth in runs — despite not having a ton of standout individual performers but losing Yelich is a brutal break.

The Brewers have been able to thrive thanks to their depth as every regular has an OPS+ of at least 90. Granted, that still means those players’ performance is 10 percent below that of the average Major Leaguer.

It also means that there really aren’t any weak spots in the lineup, so to speak. Everyone is a decent hitter with a few guys — Yelich, Willy Adames, William Contreras and Joey Ortiz — who are particularly stellar. It’s hard to face a lineup without “easy” outs.

Willy Adames is on fire 🔥

A solo shot tonight brings him up to 10 RBI in his last 9 games!

And entering play today Adames was slashing .394/.444/.727 since July 8!

pic.twitter.com/u6bl1uQanj

— Just Fantasy Baseball (@JustFantasyBB) July 23, 2024

Not having Yelich certainly will do a number on the Brewers’ MLB hitting stats and will force reserve options, like Sal Frelick and Garrett Mitchell, into more regular playing time.

Those guys are defensive upgrades over Yelich but they do not provide nearly the same power or on-base ability as a guy who was among the batting leaders in the Majors when he went down with his injury.

Miami Has Rotation Question Marks

With six starting pitchers currently on the injured list, it’s not too surprising that the Marlins’ probable pitchers for this series leave a lot to be desired.

A major reason to side with the Brewers for Marlins vs Brewers series picks is that Miami is starting Trevor Rogers (with his 4.59 ERA) on Friday, the recently called-up Max Meyer on Saturday and inexperienced Kyle Tyler on Sunday.

Rogers has walked over four batters per nine innings this season and while he has allowed three runs or fewer in each of his last eight starts, he doesn’t go deep into games and is allowing tons of baserunners.

Rogers is due for a blow-up start and that could certainly happen against a Milwaukee team which gets on base often.

Meyer has impressed in the three starts he made earlier in the year but hasn’t been in the bigs since April 13 and has been so-so in Triple-A for the past three months.

Tyler has been fine yet he too gives up plenty of traffic on the bases — a 1.452 WHIP is asking for trouble. So, it’s fair to say that Miami is really behind the eight-ball with its starting options for this series.

Go Big On Brewers

The MLB game scores should favor Milwaukee in this one and the smart bet is the Brewers at -1.5 runs on the runline (-110).

That’s not great value for a runline bet but the Marlins are one of the worst teams in baseball, they traded one of their top relievers (A.J. Puk) yesterday and have scored the second-fewest runs in the Majors to go with the second-fewest home runs, second-worst on-base percentage and second-worst OPS.

Milwaukee’s solid trio of Freddy Peralta, Aaron Civale and Tobias Myers will easily handle a limited Miami lineup. Take the under 7.5 runs (-105) too.

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