Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners Series Preview and Odds

There is still plenty of season left but this weekend’s series between the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners could prove to swing the entire American League West race.

Entering Friday, Seattle holds a slim one-game division lead over Houston which has won the division in six of the past seven seasons — excluding 2020.

So, whoever wins this series will have sole possession of first place entering next week.

• If you’re making Astros vs Mariners picks, Seattle is a -115 moneyline favorite for Friday’s opener but Houston is a +164 favorite on the runline. The total is a very low seven runs.

After a dreadful start to the season which seemed to bury the Astros, Houston has bounced back with a really strong June and July to close the gap with Seattle.

Even though Kyle Tucker has been out for over a month with a shin contusion and five Astros’ starting pitchers are on the injured list, Houston has just been able to find ways to continue winning games.

No wonder they’re always a consideration for World Series predictions.

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Seattle has had either the best or second-best rotation in baseball all season but major offensive issues — they have the worst team batting average and have the third-worst OPS — have limited the Mariners’ upside.

They ended the first half with three-straight losses to the Angels and has slowly seen its lead dwindle from a season-high 10 games on June 18th to a single game in just a month.

The Mariners could have put Houston away but they have gone 8-15 in their last 23 games.

Astros’ Starters Are Rolling

The MLB matchup between the Astros and Mariners is a fascinating one for a variety of reasons.

Maybe the most intriguing is that it pits a Houston team with a really solid 1-2-3 in the rotation against a Seattle team with arguably the best rotation in the Major Leagues.

For Astros vs Mariners picks, it’s tough to choose between Houston’s Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez and Ronel Blanco and Seattle’s Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Bryan Woo.

Considering how good Brown — Friday’s starter — has been since his nightmarish start to the season and how consistent Valdez and Blanco have continued to be all year, Houston looks like the rare team that can match up with Seattle’s best.

Granted, the Astros are lucky to not have to face Logan Gilbert this week.

In of recent success, though, it’s hard to pick against the Astros especially when you consider how they’re a top ten offensive MLB team across the board and, along with the Mets, have been one of the hottest teams in baseball since the end of May.

While Houston’s run production has played a big part in the Astros’ turnaround, the rotation’s success deserves a lot of credit too.

How Will Mariners Score?

One of the more reliable MLB prop bets you could make over the past few months has been taking the Mariners’ alternate team total under.

Seattle is on the completely opposite end of the batting average spectrum as Houston and has scored the fourth-fewest runs in the Majors.

Only three of Seattle’s starting position players have an OPS+ of over 100 and the best of the bunch (Cal Raleigh) is only at 111.

Much of the lineup, including Julio Rodríguez, has severely underperformed in large part due to how much it strikes out.

Seattle has already struck out 1,013 times as a team, by far the most in the Majors.

The Mariners do walk a lot — second-most in the AL — but with such a low average, the numbers just don’t work out in their favor in of being able to manufacture runs that don’t score on home runs.

That, plus Houston’s strong rotation and solid bullpen, really puts the Mariners behind the eight ball in this series.

They’ll need their rotation to be almost perfect or for guys like Raleigh, Rodríguez, Luke Raley and Mitch Garver to step up and hit the ball out of the park so Astros vs Mariners picks can turn out the way that Vegas expects the games to go.

Take Astros As Underdogs

• If you want to throw in a good bet for your MLB parlay picks, go with Houston at -105 on the moneyline as a slight underdog.

While Brown against Castillo is a relatively even pitching matchup, Houston’s lineup should put the Astros over the edge in a game with enormous division race potential.

Tucker is still out for the Astros but their lineup has been clicking even in his absence. Overall, Houston is the better team.

Also, while the low run total of seven runs makes sense, take the over (-120). This game certainly could be a 1-0 pitcher’s duel but there is enough home run potential for both sides that a couple of swings could easily push the total to the over side.

Whenever the total is this low, it feels like not taking the over is a missed opportunity.

For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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