Can Tyler Glasnow Sustain a 35% Strikeout Rate?
Only Glasnow Has 2024 MLB Strikeouts Odds With Projections Above 210
At the start of the 2024 MLB season, Spencer Strider led the MLB odds board with a projected 250.5 strikeouts. However, Strider was forced to get elbow surgery and will miss the remainder of the season. Although the favorite, he has no chance of winning. He will become the highest strikeout leader in 2024. Kevin Gausman and Hunter Greene were also expected to have big strikeout seasons.
However, Greene is currently 14th in strikeouts, and Gausman is 42nd with only 69 strikeouts this season. They’re not pitching in games today but are still healthy despite subpar starts.
Therefore, some big surprises are at the top of the strikeouts leaderboard including the Dodgers’ Tyler Glasnow.
Let’s break down the top 2024 MLB strikeouts odds as of June 12.
Tyler Glasnow
- 227.5 Strikeouts
- (O/U +100/-120)
Tyler Glasnow has struck out 35.4% of batters this season. He’s also limited teams to 6.3% of walks and has held opponents to a .259 wOBA.
Glasnow is having a sensational season in his first year with the Dodgers. However, he was an afterthought before the season began due to his recent injuries. He’s added 116 strikeouts on the season. The next closest is Garrett Crochet, who has only 103. That’s how far ahead Glasnow is compared to everyone else.
That said, Glasnow has never pitched more than 162 strikeouts in a single season. So he’s already nearing a career-high in a single season. We’d expect him to reach at least 228 strikeouts at his current pace. He’s been one of the main reasons the Playoff picture.
Zack Wheeler
- 206.5 Strikeouts
- (O/U +100/-120)
Zack Wheeler is now 6th in the MLB in strikeouts with 95. His performance last night helped him sur elite starters like Jack Flaherty, Freddy Peralta, and Chris Sale.
Wheeler has struck out over 28% of batters this season. He’s also limited opponents to a .115 ISO and wOBA of .249. However, oddly enough, his strikeouts against left-handed batters have dwindled to just above 22% over the last 30 days.
He’s not having a ton of success with adding strikeouts against lefties. That could ultimately hurt his chances of adding more than 200 strikeouts this season.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- 186.5 Strikeouts
- (O/U +100/-120)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto entered the MLB with the highest contract for a pitcher in league history. The expectation was that he’d be a top-ten starting pitcher and at least finish in the top ten in strikeouts.
At this time, he’d finish 17th in the MLB with only 83 strikeouts.
Yamamoto struggled to start the season, but he’s since settled in. He’s started 13 games and has a 6-2 record with a 3.00 ERA. Yamamoto has also thrown 72 innings and has 83 strikeouts with a 1.07 WHIP.
He’s elite and will only get more comfortable as the season progresses.
With that said, Yamamoto has struck out 28.4% of batters. That’s an above-average pace but nothing to write home about. For example, we just touched on his teammate Glasnow, who has struck out more than 35% of batters this season.
Yamamoto hasn’t exceeded expectations. He’s probably underperformed. Some believed he would throw 180 innings and exceed 220 strikeouts. It’s unclear if he’ll be able to achieve either of those right now.
Shota Imanaga
- 176.5 Strikeouts
- (O/U -110/-110)
The media spent the offseason talking about Yamamoto and overlooked Shota Imanaga. This other Japanese sensation has 72 strikeouts, well below Yamamoto’s 83. However, Imanaga has held teams to a 1.96 ERA and has 72 strikeouts in just 69 innings of work.
Statistically, Imanaga has been better than Yamamoto despite the lower strikeout rate. The left-hander has added 26.1% of strikeouts and has held opponents to a .106 ISO and wOBA of .261 with only 4% of walks.
Compared to Yamamoto, Imanaga is 30 years old, while Yamamoto is 25. That’s why the hype was around Yamamoto to begin the year. That said, both Japanese sensations have been incredible to start the year. We’ll see which one can outdo the other in the strikeout category.
Ultimately, Yamamoto has thrown just three more innings than Imanaga up to this point, which has also helped Yamamoto’s higher projection when looking at the 2024 MLB strikeouts odds.
Paul Skenes
- 151.5 Strikeouts
- (O/U -120/+100)
Although Paul Skenes has only pitched in six games during the regular season, he’s still 112th in the MLB in strikeouts and has more than a bunch of pitchers who haven’t missed a start this season.
Skenes added eight strikeouts against the Cardinals in his most recent start, earning more than 35% of strikeouts this season.
The Pirates rookie has also done well limiting walks and hasn’t allowed too much power, with an ISO of .140 and wOBA of .272. Still, he has struggled a bit more against righties, but it’s nothing to be concerned about just yet.
With pitchers like Skenes, there’s always worry that he won’t be able to finish out a season. His velocity is very high, and those pitchers often suffer injuries in the MLB. Even after 90 pitches against the Cardinals, the Pirates sent him out for the 7th inning to face a couple more batters.
Pittsburgh intends to pitch Skenes while they can. Therefore, we’d consider taking a chance on these MLB odds with the over 151.5 strikeouts at -120.
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