Bet the Royals To Neutralize Diamondbacks

Both the Kansas City.

Arizona is coming off a series win in Chicago against the Cubs — albeit with an extra innings loss on Sunday afternoon — while Kansas City easily dispatched the lowly Chicago White Sox, allowing a total of three runs all weekend.

This D’Backs vs Royals preview notes that the Royals are -155 moneyline favorites and +130 on the runline at -1.5 for Monday’s opener. The total is 8.5 runs with the Under shaded at -118.

The NL Wild Card is absurdly close as the Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres and New York Mets are all in a virtual tie for the third spot while the Pittsburgh Pirates are just a half-game behind.

So, every game is critical for the defending NL champs who have rebounded well from a disappointing start to the season.

The MLB scores and odds have favored Arizona since the beginning of June when the Diamondbacks were a season-worst seven games under .500.

The Royals are tied with the division rival Minnesota Twins for the second Wild Card spot in the AL, a game up on the Boston Red Sox.

Kansas City has gotten incredible starting pitching all season. This past weekend was no different as Michael Wacha, Brady Singer, and Seth Lugo completely shut down Chicago.

And, they provided length which is important for a Kansas City team that doesn’t have a reliable bullpen.

Arizona’s Lineup Is Dangerous

The Diamondbacks have scored the third-most runs in baseball despite only hitting the 16th-most home runs.

Thanks to a top-ten batting average, on-base percentage and OPS, Arizona typically gets runners on base. It has done a good job of taking advantage of those opportunities.

As this D’Backs vs Royals preview must mention, Arizona is hitting 20 percent better than the league average with runners in scoring position and has been particularly good with two outs.

Thanks to Ketel Marte and Christian Walker– two of baseball’s most productive hitters — the Diamondbacks have been able to withstand disappointing campaigns from reigning NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll and Eugenio Suárez.

Joc Pederson, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Randal Grichuk have also been solid contributors for Arizona.

While the MLB odds today don’t love the Diamondbacks having to go up against Kansas City’s ace Cole Ragans, they might underestimate Arizona’s offensive ability.

Ragans is great but he can be wild and that’s something the Diamondbacks could potentially exploit.

Tough To Crack Royals’ Rotation

With that said, there’s a reason the Royals are favorites in this D’Backs vs Royals preview. And it’s thanks to the starting pitching.

The Royals have the third-best starter ERA in baseball, the fourth-best WHIP, the sixth-highest K/9, the fifth-lowest H/9, and the second-lowest HR/9.

Across the board, they’ve done a great job keeping opponents off the bases and away from home plate.

Ragans, Monday’s starter, is the main reason for the Royals’ pitching resurgence. After dominating with the Royals following a midseason trade from the Texas Rangers, Ragans has been just as good in 2024.

He has a 3.16 ERA in 116 2/3 innings and is striking out nearly 11 batters per nine innings. Besides a clunker against the Cleveland Guardians in late June, Ragans has allowed three runs or fewer in 10 of his last 11 starts.

Even the explosive Diamondbacks will have their hands full with him.

Things will get a bit easier against Alec Marsh and Michael Wacha on Tuesday and Wednesday. These guys have been solid Nos. 3 and 4 in the Kansas City rotation and are far from pushovers.

Granted, Seth Lugo and Brady Singer are a bit more formidable and have also put together All-Star-worthy campaigns. They pitched over the weekend so the Diamondbacks are fortunate enough to avoid them in this series.

All in all, the Royals’ rotation, as one of the MLB stat leaders across the board, has carried a so-so lineup to a 55-45 record through 100 games and that’s very impressive.

Side With Kansas City

Take the Royals to cover the -1.5 run spread on the runline as a +130 favorite.

Ragans has been awesome all season and Arizona’s starter, Yilber Díaz, will be making just his third MLB start.

Díaz’s first two starts were nearly identical six-inning, one-run gems but he won’t pitch that well every time out.

Also, his strike percentage has been a relatively low 60 percent, indicating that he may be getting a little lucky sequencing-wise.

Still, with Ragans on the mound, take the under 8.5 runs at -118. Don’t expect a ton of scoring in this one, just enough for the Royals to get a comfortable win at home.

For Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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