2023 MLB Run Lines Betting: Buy Baltimore, Fade New York
National League co-favorite owns MLB's worst run-line record
Memorial Day weekend is upon us, the first “unofficial” benchmark of the MLB season. With that in mind, we break down the best and worst teams against the run line to this point. Here’s a closer look at the 2023 MLB runlines betting market.
Orioles Flying High
Despite their record-setting start, the Baltimore Orioles, sitting just three backs game from the division leader at 33-17.
The Orioles seem to be picking up steam, too. They’re 11-5 over their last 16 games, including series victories over the Rays, Blue Jays, and Yankees. Altogether, their 33-17 record against the run line is the best in baseball, edging 31-18 Texas. The Orioles are also 21-6 against the run line on the road. That, too, leads the majors.
What’s behind Baltimore’s success? Start with the backend of the bullpen. MLB stats.
Nats Beating the Odds
The Washington Nationals — yes, the Washington Nationals — currently own the third-best record against the run line at 31-19, including 17-5 on the road. That’s surprising because, well, the Nationals haven’t been very good. They’re about where many expected them to be heading into Memorial Day weekend: 21-29 with a minus-24 run differential. That’s good for last place in the National League East.
Through 50 games, the Nationals have a cover rate of 62%. The two teams ahead of them (Orioles and Rangers) both have winning records, as do the three teams below (Rays, Diamondbacks, Dodgers). Given that, the Nationals seem due for regression in the 2023 MLB runlines betting market.
Bottoms Up for Mets, Royals
Unquestionably, the Dodgers.
Apparently, oddsmakers are still adjusting to New York’s mediocrity. At 18-33, the Miami Marlins are next in line at 19-32.
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