Bettors Need To Rethink The Value Of An Umpire Immediately
We've Uncovered a Trend That's a Perfect 57 for 57 in 2024!
Embracing The Home Team
Have you ever wondered if the need to hear the roar of the crowd affected how an umpire called balls or strikes? How do you not get caught up in a game started by Paul Skenes when everyone is hanging on every pitch? We went through each umpire in 2024 to determine who gives the home fans and bettors something to cheer about.
Seven-year veteran Jeremie Rehak leads the way with the home team winning seven of eight games he’s umpired this season, while continuing a trend over the last two seasons with the home team winning 24 of 37 games (.649) overall, totaling 8.62 units of profit.
Behind Rehak is decorated crew chief Alfonso Marquez (8-2) with 5.32 units won. Marquez has been especially effective when betting home underdogs with five winners in six games this season (+4.86). Clint Vondrak and Doug Eddings are a distant third with home teams winning seven of their nine games behind the plate. Vondrak was promoted this season after 10 years in the minors while Eddings has well over 3,000 MLB games under his belt, but is known to have a massive strike zone.
Home favorites are 6-1 with Vondrak calling balls and strikes while home teams are 104-73 (.588) with Eddings behind the plate. The former New Mexico State Aggie has a seven-year streak of home teams turning a profit. Only twice since 2011 has the home team not finished in the black (227-166, +32.08). The top five rounds out with Gabe Morales (5-1, +3.54). Combined, home teams are 34-8 (.810, +23.00) when either of these five are behind home plate. That should put you on the right side of the MLB scoreboard moving forward.
Eddings Leads The Way When Betting Big Favorites
You look down at your MLB picks and parlays and want to add one more team but we’re looking at big favorites. We’ve all done it whether seasoned bettors it it or not. The 2024 MLB umpire betting report shows these five umpires are who you want behind home plate when laying -150 or more. Our friend Doug Eddings is on top with large favorites a perfect 5-0 (+3.03). Eddings has been a model of consistency over the last three seasons with large home teams winning 26 of 33 games since 2022.
This season, Eddings games have fallen between -150 and -179. Next up is Jim Wolf who is also 5-0 but second in money won (+2.68). Of the five games, four have been home favorites. Next is Ryan Blackney, considered one of the best balls and strikes umpires in the business. Large favorites are a perfect 4-0 with Blackney behind the dish in 2024 and 39-15 (+5.01) since 2021.
Stu Scheurwater comes in with a 4-0 mark, producing 2.31 units of profit. Now get ready for your mind to be blown. We’re not going to list them all, but if you look at the 2024 MLB umpire betting report, you’ll see 57 times a team was a -150 favorite or more in 2024, spanning over 18 different umpires, and wouldn’t you know it – the favorite is 57-0. In fact, over the last three seasons, teams have won 69% of their games using this filter. We’ll list them all at the bottom. How’s that for a handicapping tip?!
Which Umpires Come Through the Most for You?
We’ll finish our report by determining which MLB umpires are the most reliable in relation to public betting percentages. Let’s explain further. When 60% of the money is on a specific team we also want an umpire who tends to help us out. There likely is no way a home plate umpire knows what percentage of the money is on which team, but it’s still an interesting study. When 50-59% of the money is on one side Phil Cuzzi, Adam Beck, and Quin Wolcott are a perfect 6-0 while Alfonso Marquez is 0-3.
Ben May and Mike Muchlinski are 6-0 when teams are getting 60-69% of the money while Mark Carlson is 0-3. When teams are getting 70%-79% of the cash – Manny Gonzalez (5-0) and Adrian Johnson (4-0) are a perfect 9-0 while Doug Eddings is 5-0 when teams are receiving 80%-89% of the money.
Large favorites are a sparkling 15-0 when Blakney, Nate Tomlinson, Nick Mahrley, Mike Estabrook, or Laz Diaz is behind home plate. We struggle to find numbers from a team or player perspective that will produce consistent winners, but after dissecting this umpire report, it’s clear we’ve been looking in the wrong direction.
-150 Favorites in 2024 with These 18 Home Plate Umpires
Doug Eddings 5-0 +3.03
Jim Wolf 5-0 +2.68
Ryan Blakney 4-0 +2.45
Stu Scheurwater 4-0 +2.31
Erich Bacchus 5-0 +2.30
Nic Lentz 4-0 +2.21
Mark Carlson 3-0 +1.95
Clint Vondrak 3-0 +1.87
Junior Valentine 3-0 +1.79
Trip Gibson 3-0 +1.77
Brian Knight 3-0 +1.76
Sean Barber 3-0 +1.66
Manny Gonzalez 2-0 +1.26
Jonathan Parra 2-0 +1.24
Cory Blaser 2-0 +1.21
Chris Segal 2-0 +1.20
Chris Guccione 2-0 +1.06
David Rackley 2-0 +0.78
57-0 +32.51 units
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